template · prediction

Prediction template

Copy-paste skeleton. Five fields, all required.

How to use

Replace every [...] with a concrete value. The template fights you when you try to skip — that's the point. If you cannot fill a field, the prediction is not ready and the cycle is not ready to start.

Prediction:    [One sentence. Names the named person and the
                measurable change. "Gal completes a grading cycle
                in under 15 minutes."]

Baseline:      [Number with sample size and date. Captured by
                observation, not query. Witnessed.]
                Example: "47 min mean, n=12, captured 2026-04-22
                by direct observation of three named graders."

Target:        [Number, range, or threshold. Specific.]
                Example: "<15 min mean across n>=8 observed cycles
                OR <12 min median across n>=8."

Check date:    [Date in the named owner's calendar. Usually 2-6
                weeks post-flag-enable.]
                Example: "2026-06-15"

Check method:  [Specific. Witnessed-not-described. Names the
                instrumentation if any.]
                Example: "Three observation sessions across three
                named graders, in the field, with a stopwatch and
                the time-on-task event log as cross-check.
                Minimum 8 cycles total."

Owner:         [Named person. Not a role. "Alex (PO)" not "PO".]

Worked example — the prediction filled in

Change:        Gal completes the grading cycle for an exam batch
                without lifting her hands from the keyboard for
                navigation between exams.

Baseline:      47 minutes per grading session (mean, n=12, captured
                2026-04-22 through 2026-04-26 by sitting next to Gal
                in three Friday sessions. Of the 47 min, ~31 min
                were navigation; ~16 min were scoring.)

Target:        Under 15 minutes per session (mean across n≥8 cycles).

Check date:    2026-06-25.

Check method:  Three observation sessions across three named
                graders — Gal, Dina, and one of the two not-yet-
                observed teachers at pilot schools — held on
                Fridays/Sundays in their actual schedule. Stopwatch
                in hand; cross-checked against the `teacher.submitted_grade`
                and `teacher.opened_exam` event log. Minimum 8 cycles
                total across the three observers.

Owner:         Alex (PO).

A worked example that goes wrong — and what to do

Change:        Improve the grading experience.

Baseline:      Grading takes "a while."

Target:        Faster.

Check date:    TBD.

Check method:  We'll know.

Owner:         The team.

Why this fails the five-field test: Change is a category, not a measurable shift. Baseline is described, not witnessed. Target is not a number. Check date is not on a calendar. Check method is not witnessed-not-described. Owner is not a named person.

Fix: any field that resists — re-walk Writing predictions before pretending the brief is ready.

Where this lives in your project

Paste the prediction into your Feature Brief, immediately under Experience snapshot. The brief sits in Confluence (or wherever your team holds the cycle's artifacts), next to the journey map.

The signed-off brief is the gate condition for execution: Volume II · Feature Brief.

What to do if a field resists

Resistance	What it means	Where to go
Baseline is hard to capture	Discovery is incomplete	Volume II · Observation
Target won't fit any of the three forms	The change is not yet specific enough	Re-walk Station 4 — Solution Options
No instrumentation for the check method	The cycle's first story is the instrumentation	Volume IV · Observability
No one will commit a calendar date	The team does not believe the cycle will produce a checkable outcome	Clinic · A brief that didn't witness

See also

• Practice — Writing predictions
• Checklist — Five fields
• Canon — Volume II · Part 9